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Daily Market Notes

Timely notes on what moved and why: the Fed, energy, policy headlines and the tape reaction, written the day it happened.

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Daily Market Notes · August 6, 2026
Cloudflare grew revenue 36% and the market treated it as an acceleration story

Second-quarter revenue of $696.1 million, up 36%, non-GAAP operating income of $96.1 million, and current remaining performance obligations up 35%. Shares rose sharply after hours. Read →

Daily Market Notes · August 6, 2026
Airbnb beat on every line and guided above consensus, and the stock finally moved

Second-quarter revenue of $3.61 billion, adjusted EPS of $1.37, gross booking value up 16% to $27.2 billion, and a third-quarter guide above the street. Shares rose about 9% after hours. Read →

Daily Market Notes · August 5, 2026
Citadel returned 5.9% in July, and was up 0.45% through the 24th

Wellington finished July up 5.9% and roughly 12% for the year. It was up 0.45% through July 24. Nearly the whole month came from buying Situational Awareness distressed equity book. Read →

Daily Market Notes · August 5, 2026
CVS Q2: the Aetna medical benefit ratio fell 2.5 points, and that is the whole print

Adjusted EPS of $2.58 against $1.81 a year earlier, on revenue near $106.1 billion. Aetna medical benefit ratio improved to 87.4% from 89.9%, and full-year guidance rose to $7.90-$8.10. Read →

Daily Market Notes · August 5, 2026
Eli Lilly Q2: revenue up 48%, volume up 60%, and price down 13%

Revenue of $23.0 billion against a $20.7 billion consensus, with non-GAAP EPS of $8.38. Full-year guidance raised to $85-87 billion. Volume grew 60% while realised prices fell 13%. Read →

Daily Market Notes · August 5, 2026
Uber Q2: bookings up 24%, and a third-quarter guide that tops out where the quarter finished

Gross bookings of $58.0 billion, up 24%, with trips up 18% to 3.9 billion. Third-quarter constant-currency bookings guidance of 18% to 22% put its ceiling at the growth rate just delivered. Read →

Daily Market Notes · August 5, 2026
Disney FQ3: streaming profit doubles, parks hold their pricing, ESPN still falling

Revenue of $25.2 billion, up 7%, with adjusted EPS of $2.06 against a $1.86 consensus. Disney+ and Hulu operating income more than doubled to $712 million. ESPN operating income fell 17%. Read →

Daily Market Notes · August 4, 2026
The congressman who bet against himself

George Santos settled with the CFTC on July 31 over a Kalshi market on his own State of the Union attendance. He forfeits $17,570 in winnings, pays a $17,500 penalty, and takes a three-year trading ban. Kalshi flagged it first. Read →

Daily Market Notes · August 4, 2026
Oil extends its decline on Hormuz-deal optimism, WTI settles near $76

WTI settled near $75.80 and Brent moved toward $80 after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could arrive within a day. The geopolitical risk premium is compressing ahead of this week\u2019s labor data. Read →

Daily Market Notes · August 4, 2026
SpaceX Q2: revenue up 92%, Starlink at 12 million, and capex more than twice revenue

First results as a public company. Revenue of $7.8 billion, up 92% and about $1 billion ahead of consensus. Starlink at 12 million subscribers. Group capex of $18.4 billion, most of it AI infrastructure. Read →

Daily Market Notes · August 4, 2026
AMD doubles Data Center and the stock sells off anyway

Q2 revenue of $11.5 billion, up 50%, with Data Center at $6.7 billion, up 107% and 58% of the company. Q3 guided to about $13 billion. Shares fell after hours. Read →

Daily Market Notes · August 4, 2026
Caterpillar raises guidance as data-center demand shows up in the backlog

Q2 revenue of $20.5 billion, up 24% and a first-ever $20 billion quarter. Adjusted EPS of $8.17 against roughly $6.20 expected, a record $72.1 billion backlog, and full-year growth guidance raised to the mid-to-high teens. Read →

Daily Market Notes · August 4, 2026
Burry exits Microsoft and pushes the AI shorts out to 2027

An August 4 disclosure: the Microsoft long is gone, the Oracle put is closed at a profit, and the Nvidia and QQQ puts have been rolled into 2027. The stock short book is unchanged. Read →

Daily Market Notes · August 4, 2026
Palantir re-rates on a 149% U.S. commercial growth print

Q2 revenue of $1.935 billion, up 93%, with U.S. commercial up 149% and a 62% adjusted operating margin. The Rule of 40 score was 155%. Guidance carries the acceleration into the second half. Read →

Daily Market Notes · August 4, 2026
Telegram was pulled from the App Store and restored the same day

Apple briefly delisted Telegram worldwide on August 3 and 4 over prohibited content, then restored it once the material was removed and the user banned. Existing installs never stopped working. Read →

Daily Market Notes · August 4, 2026
AstraZeneca and Bristol Myers: the $400 billion talks, and why the buyer fell 9%

AstraZeneca and Bristol Myers Squibb discussed a combination valued near $400 billion. AstraZeneca shares fell as much as 9%. The asymmetry between buyer and target is the signal worth reading. Read →

Daily Market Notes · August 4, 2026
SpaceX's first post-IPO earnings: the numbers that set the narrative

SpaceX reports its first quarter as a public company after the close on August 4, with the stock well below its $135 IPO price. Starlink margins, launch cadence, Starship capital intensity and the lockup timing are what actually matter. Read →

Daily Market Notes · August 3, 2026
The yen carry trade, explained: why a currency move hits US stocks and Treasuries

Cheap yen funded a decade of asset purchases. When the trade reverses, capital leaves what it was supporting. How the mechanism works, what it moves, and one widely-repeated fact about Japan that is now out of date. Read →

Daily Market Notes · August 3, 2026
OPEC+ adds 188,000 bpd, finishing a rollback rather than starting one

Seven producers agreed a September increase that completes the unwinding of the 2023 voluntary cuts. Roughly 2 million bpd of 2022-era cuts stay in place, the statement said nothing about Q4, and Hormuz and Russian output sit between quota and supply. Read →

Daily Market Notes · August 1, 2026
Qualcomm says Apple modem share will fall well below 20%

Handset chip revenue fell 20% to $5.09B and net income fell 25%. Apple revenue guided down about 50% from the September to December quarter. Read →

Daily Market Notes · July 31, 2026
10-year yield holds near 4.67% after the long-end spike

Benchmark finished 4.66–4.68%. 30-year still near a 19-year high after the post-FOMC selloff. Read →

Daily Market Notes · July 31, 2026
Warsh mulls fewer FOMC meetings as bond honeymoon ends

NYT: Chair raised idea of cutting the eight-meeting cadence. 30-year near 19-year high after the July hold. Read →

Daily Market Notes · July 31, 2026
Kospi +17.91% — largest daily gain on record

+1,001.89 points. SK Hynix limit-up, Samsung +26%, foreign buying ₩7.2T. Chip rebound erased three days of losses. Read →

Daily Market Notes · July 31, 2026
Eurozone inflation ticks up to 2.9% on energy

Flash HICP 2.9% from 2.8%. Energy 10.0%, core 2.5%. Iran oil still feeding through. Read →

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