10-year yield holds near 4.67% after the long-end spike
The benchmark finished the day in a tight 4.66–4.68% range. The 30-year remains the louder signal after the post-FOMC selloff that pushed it near a 19-year high.
July closed with the 10-year Treasury yield still elevated and the curve still carrying the scar from Wednesday’s reaction to Chair Warsh. After the FOMC hold, the long end sold off hard. The 30-year yield briefly touched levels not seen since 2007. The 10-year moved less dramatically but has not given the gains back.
The move is not primarily a growth scare. Real yields and term premium have done most of the heavy lifting since the late-June lows. Inflation expectations have also ticked higher after the energy spike tied to the Iran conflict.
What matters for the next few sessions is whether the long end stabilizes or keeps probing higher. A 10-year that settles into a 4.60–4.75% band is consistent with a Fed that is still on hold. A clean break above 4.75% would force a re-pricing of rate-hike odds for September and the equity-duration trade. For now the message is simple: the honeymoon period for the new Chair is over.