Caterpillar raises guidance as data-center demand shows up in the backlog
The AI build-out has to be poured, wired and powered by someone. This is the quarter where that showed up in an industrial order book rather than a software forecast.
Caterpillar reported second-quarter revenue of $20.5 billion, up 24% year over year and the first $20 billion quarter in the company's history. Adjusted earnings came in at $8.17 per share against consensus near $6.20. Full-year 2026 sales-growth guidance moved up to the mid-to-high teens from the prior low-double-digit range, and the expected tariff cost impact was narrowed.
The order backlog reached a record $72.1 billion.
Where the growth came from
Construction Industries revenue rose 35%, with North American sales up 50%. Power & Energy rose 17%, driven in large part by power-generation equipment for data centers. Management named non-residential investment in critical infrastructure, heavy construction and data-center projects as key contributors.
Why this is a useful cross-check on the AI trade
Most AI demand commentary is downstream of two sources: what the chip companies say they shipped, and what the hyperscalers say they plan to spend. Both are self-reported by parties with an interest in the number.
Caterpillar is a third party to that argument. A data center is earthmoving before it is silicon, and it needs generators and backup power before it needs a single GPU. When that build-out is real, it arrives in Caterpillar's order book whether or not anyone is talking about AI. A record backlog, raised guidance and explicit management commentary on data-center demand is independent confirmation that the capital intensity is large enough to move a traditional industrial company's full-year outlook.
That is a different kind of evidence from a semiconductor beat, and it is harder to explain away.
The counter-position
Caterpillar is also in Michael Burry's disclosed short book, alongside Nvidia, Micron, Applied Materials and SOXX. The bear case is not that the spending is not happening. It is that it is not sustainable at this pace, and that the companies financing it are flattering the economics.
This print does not settle that. It does establish that the money is currently landing on the ground, which is the part a short thesis has to outlast.
Reported figures from the company's own results. Educational content, not financial advice.