Eli Lilly Q2: revenue up 48%, volume up 60%, and price down 13%

Eli Lilly reported second-quarter revenue of $23.0 billion, up 48% year over year, against a consensus near $20.7 billion. Non-GAAP earnings were $8.38 per share versus roughly $6.01 expected. Full-year revenue guidance went to $85–87 billion from $82–85 billion.

A $2.3 billion revenue beat is not a modelling error at the margin. It is a demand curve nobody has fitted yet.

Volume is carrying it, and price is working against it

The company attributes the quarter to a 60% increase in volume, partially offset by a 13% decrease in realised prices. That decomposition is the most important thing in the release.

Growing 48% while prices fall 13% means the franchise is expanding faster than the discounting can drag on it. It also means the reported growth rate understates how much product is actually moving, which is exactly why manufacturing capacity keeps being the constraint people ask about.

The two drugs

Mounjaro reached $9.94 billion worldwide, up 91%. Zepbound contributed roughly $4.93 billion, with U.S. Mounjaro up 45% to $4.8 billion and U.S. Zepbound up 44% to $4.9 billion. Key products in total reached $15.7 billion.

Two drugs now account for the large majority of a company this size. That is the growth story and the concentration risk in one sentence, and both halves are true at once.

Capacity is the variable to watch

Lilly committed a further $4.5 billion to expand manufacturing in Indiana. When demand runs this far ahead of supply, the bottleneck stops being commercial and becomes industrial, and factory timelines are slower and less forgiving than prescription trends.

The guidance raise says management believes the demand holds. The capital commitment says they expect to still be short of it.

Reported figures from the company's results release. Educational content, not financial advice.