A Soft PPI Print Took the S&P to Its 27th Record of the Year
The July Producer Price Index came in unchanged month over month, and that single flat number did more for equities than any earnings report this week.
The July Producer Price Index came in unchanged month over month, and that single flat number did more for equities than any earnings report this week. The S&P 500 closed at 7,798.99, up 0.65%, after touching 7,816.70 intraday. It is the index's 27th record close of the year.
Why a flat print is the whole story
Economists had forecast a 0.2% rise. Getting zero is not a rounding difference in this context: producer prices sit upstream of consumer prices, so a month with no increase at the wholesale level removes one of the arguments for a September move.
Core PPI, which strips food and energy, rose 0.4%. That is the number that should keep anyone from calling this a clean disinflation print, and it is why the reaction was a good day rather than a repricing. The headline gave the market permission; the core reading kept it honest.
What it changes and what it does not
It reduces the odds the Fed moves in September. It does not settle them, because one month of producer prices has never settled anything, and because the July CPI print is the number with the larger claim on the decision.
A 27th record close in August says more about the year than about Thursday. The index has spent 2026 repricing to a rate path that keeps almost arriving, and each softer-than-expected print buys another leg of that.