Fed holds at 3.50–3.75%, three members wanted a hike, yields spike
The decision was a hold. The message was not.
The Federal Open Market Committee held the federal funds rate in the 3.50–3.75% range. That was the expected outcome. What was not expected was the size and composition of the hawkish dissent.
Three FOMC members (Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan) voted for a 25 basis-point hike. Chair Kevin Warsh struck a hard line, stating there would be “no softened inflation target.”
The bond market reacted immediately. The 30-year Treasury yield punched above 5.2%, the highest level since 2007. The 10-year yield moved to roughly 4.70%.
A hold with three members already wanting higher rates and a Chair refusing to soften the inflation objective is a different signal from a unanimous hold. Markets that had been pricing a smoother path now have to reprice the risk that the next move is still up, not down.