Were these lineups really entered in the contest?

No. Each set is scored on DraftKings' final points and placed against the real contest's results, but the lineups were not entered, so every finish shown is a simulated contest finish, not a real entry.

Are bad weeks left out?

No. The set is recorded before the slate locks, a record written after kickoff is refused, and every recorded week is shown whether it went well or badly.

What does chance of first mean?

It is the model's own estimate, made before lock, that at least one lineup in the set finishes first. It is shown beside the result so the estimate can be checked against what happened over many weeks.

DFS optimizer · results

Every week's optimizer set, graded against the real contest

Before each NFL main slate locks, the optimizer's set of GPP lineups is recorded. After the slate, every lineup is scored on DraftKings' final points and placed against the real contest's winning score. Every recorded week is here, bad weeks included.

Simulated contest finish; not real entries. The lineups are scored against the real contest's results, but they were not entered in it. A finish here is where the lineup would have placed.

Week by week

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How a week is graded

The set is recorded before the first game kicks off; a record written after kickoff is refused, so no set can be chosen with the results in view. Once the slate is final, each lineup is scored on DraftKings' official points (read from ESPN's final box scores). The contest's real winning score and entry count come from the contest itself. Finish is where a lineup's score falls among the real contest's scores. Chance of first is the model's estimate, made before lock, that at least one lineup in the set finishes first: shown so it can be checked against what actually happened, week after week.